The Beginnings of the Syrian Civil War

It appears as though most people are becoming increasingly aware of what is becoming a violent civil conflict in Syria. Both Hillary Clinton and Russian FM Sergey Lavrov have diagnosed the current situation as such. Given the brazen recent attack on the Baath Party headquarters in Damascus, the relatively quiet stronghold of Baath power in Syria, it is hard for one to avoid the fact that the Syrian conflict is changing in a drastic way.

Syrian activists say several rocket-propelled grenades hit a ruling Baath Party building in Damascus Sunday, not long before the Arab League rejected amendments from President Bashar al-Assad’s government to a plan that would end Syria’s deepening crisis.

The Local Coordination Committees activist network and several residents reported numerous explosions in the center of the Syrian capital. They said fire trucks headed to the area amid a heavy police presence. There was no immediate verification of the reports, and other eyewitnesses saw no signs of damage.

The Free Syrian Army, a group of dissident soldiers based in neighboring Turkey, claimed responsibility for the attack.

The Free Syrian Army, formed by defectors from the Syrian armed forces, recently announced their establishment.

My translation

…to the great Syrian People: We embark on our duty to protect you; we are a unit, protecting the land and its legacy, announcing the establishment of the Sham Falcons brigade, which will act in all of its power to support the oppressed and re-establish rights. We state to Bashar al-Assad and his clique of oppressors: you will find us everywhere at all times, and you will see that which you do not expect, until we re-establish the rights and freedom of our people. Long live Syria, free, beloved and honored.

I regard these developments with alarm. The introduction of violence into the current situation could be very destructive to the development of Syrian civil society. Many Arab countries suffer from dysfunctional political cultures due to the role of violence in public life. Lebanon, 20 years past the civil war, still suffers from situations where militias take to the streets to compel political action. Their educated class left and never came back.

It is difficult to imagine a way in which violently confronting the Assad regime works in the favor of the revolutionaries. The Syrian army isn’t like Libya’s. They are majority Allawi and a violent confrontation will play into the worst fears of the Christian and Allawi communities – that the revolutionaries, who do have a worrying religious character about them, are bent against violence and genocide against minorities, and Iraq will repeat itself all over again. Except in this case the American army won’t be sitting in Damascus ordering everyone to play nice.

Without international intervention, armed revolutionaries would likely lose as they did in 1982. Unlike Libya, only a small minority of the army would be likely defectors; fully 70% of the Syrian armed forces are Allawi. With intervention, the situation could very well become internationalized as what happened in Lebanon given the many countries with interests in Syria.

At the current rate, it appears as though the situation may spin out of control into a cycle of violence. It is unfortunately true that the Syrian revolutionaries have very few options, given the unlikely prospects for international intervention in Syria. However, introducing violence into Syria seems like the least desirable option available to Syrians.